Occupancy Index - January 15, 2022

OMICRON VARIANT

SRRA conducted a series of interviews to gauge employer’s response to Omicron. Two things were consistently mentioned. Firstly, most employers have already prepared physical conditions for returning employees to permit social distancing for between 30% and 50% of their labour force. Secondly, once governments and medical experts agree to lift restrictions, implementing a new normal will be iterative and not sudden permitting employees and companies time to adjust.

This may result in reaching new levels of occupancy - 30% by Spring. But it is too early to say when a significant return will follow.   -    Stay safe your SRRA Team.

Links to Articles of Interest

Dig beneath the headlines! 

New variant scuttles progress on return to the office

 Toronto – like most centres – showing stalled momentum for return to office due to Omicron

 The Economist’s take on WFH as a long-term concept (may require logging in to their site)

 Companies in Canada still a long way from taking action like Google’s latest salvo on vaccines

 Moving around London could become a problem if things don’t look up for TfL?

 Some see providing return to the office technology and advice as a revenue stream

 The push and pull over WFH – some workers prefer it, but most employers don’t want to cede control

 Changing perspectives on Omicron impact but the WHO still advising caution

  “The Occupancy Index is supported by the City of Toronto, Financial District BIA, Bloor-Yorkville BIA, The Waterfront BIA, Downtown Yonge BIA, St Lawrence Market BIA and Toronto Entertainment District BIA. It is a measure of the percentage of office employees returning to the office compared to the number of employees who would normally have come to their offices pre-COVID. For a detailed description of the calculation please contact Iain Dobson at [email protected],”

Occupancy Index - December 15

Comments –

Omicron has driven many office workers back home, but not as many as we thought. Our data for the first half of December does not reflect the impact of Omicron as much as last week, however, this time of year sees a normal drop for the Holidays. As we did in 2020 we will not be publishing the Index for the second half of December. The Next Index will come out in late January. The Index is funded by the City of Toronto, six major BIAs in the Financial core and the members of SRRA, thank you!

Wishing you and your families the best for the Holiday Season - the SRRA Team.

Links to Articles of Interest

Take the time to read the articles, not just the headlines! 

The Five-Day Office Week Isn’t Coming Back. WFH Is Here to Stay

 A new wave of Covid uncertainty is upending business plans from Wall Street to Silicon Valley.

Will future viruses demand employees to work from home?

What is the future of Wall Street as Omicron takes over?  

Occupancy Index - December 1

Comments –

In the second half of November, we saw the beginning of some reluctance due to an increase of COVID activity. We are seeing stronger signs that the new variants and warnings around gatherings, which are increasing in the early days of December, will lead to a possible decrease in the return to downtown Toronto in the next Index.

stay safe - the SRRA Team

Links to Articles of Interest

Take the time to read the articles, not just the headlines! 

One step forward, one step back…

Important global survey reveals how office workers are reacting to long-term WFH and more. This is a must read – especially for anyone who has already made up their mind about how the future will unfold!

Advice for employers to be prepared for legal implications of permitting WFH to extend beyond the pandemic

Your chance to contribute to a joint BizNow/Economist survey on work from home and more

A lament for the joys of working in the office from a former commuter who logged 150 miles a day

Keeping track of the fundamentals – why reacting to scary headlines can mislead the most experienced practitioners. Can the Toronto region see itself in New York’s experience?

A set of strong opinions on the future of hybrid work from a company with a vested interest

Fascinating read on ‘the great resignation’ but may require you to register with the Economist

Occupancy Index - November 15

Comments –

Employers are beginning to express confidence in a return to the office policy which permits some WFH. Mid January is looking like an important test period for understanding how employees will respond to a back in the office component of where they work. Activity downtown on Mondays and Fridays is increasing. The Tuesday to Thursday phenomenon pervasive in the early Fall is beginning to spread out and the use of transit is increasing steadily, however, we remain in early stages of the return to the office.

stay safe - the SRRA Team

Links to Articles of Interest

Take the time to read the articles, not just the headlines! 

Will Canadian firms get a look in? Will the demand for expertise on infrastructure south of the border create shortages on this side of the borders?

Is it time to look seriously at the age of the Toronto region’s building stock?  Questions are being asked south of the border.

The search for talent and the challenge of retaining talent is a global affair.

U.S. office investors are bullish on the future of the office.

What Bosses Really Think About the Future of the Office. C.E.O.s are eager for employees to return — and afraid of alienating those who have grown accustomed to working from home.

Occupancy Index - November 1

Comments –

Other measurements of activity using algorithms from cell phone locations confirm that more people are choosing to return to the downtown. SRRA’s Index measuring the return of office workers specifically indicates that commuters are reaching their maximum use of the car. Parking lots are filling up, traffic is nearing pre-COVID levels and the delivery of goods and services continues to escalate.

The trend toward a Tuesday to Thursday hybrid model will present problems for transit operators, retailers and cultural businesses who rely on a more complete work week. That said the return is still in its early stages with much to learn over the next few months.

The links below highlight the difficulties for employers organizing a hybrid model.

Links to Articles of Interest

Take the time to read the articles, not just the headlines! 

Take newspaper headlines with a pinch of salt! Important to read the actual report to which ‘experts’ are reacting. (And check against SRRA’s robust data on office occupancy trends if still unconvinced.)

Myths and misunderstandings about the perils of taking transit during the pandemic need to be countered by research – scientists in London finding no traces of virus on system so far

New York shopping streets in neighbourhoods faring better than major retail corridors – less office worker foot traffic to blame say analysts

Ernst & Young survey suggests that large companies may downplay role of head office as impact of hybrid sees few companies laying down specifics about WFH

Residential developers clean up in U.S. suburban metros as pandemic spurs unprecedented demand from empty nesters and young professionals leaving the core. Is this indicative of the Toronto region’s experience?

Corporate remote working policies and desire for flexibility an issue of concern for U.S. office workers – PwC survey.  Employees still in the driver’s seat? Depends on the size and type of business

Occupancy Index - October 15

Comments –

The holiday weekend may have had an impact on the increased return to the office. We nevertheless expect an increase in the Index by the end of October, possibly nearing 15%.

We note a particularly interesting strategy evolving. Tata CS in India, a 550,000 plus employer, has reversed its plans for a hybrid model. (That’s people, not cars!) Instead they will require most employees to return in the next three months and THEN work out the optimum hybrid solution. They argue that they need to build corporate culture after such a long period of maximum WFH.

For more; https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/why-tcs-employees-will-work-from-office-before-they-return-to-wfh-7572691.html/amp

… stay safe - the SRRA Team

Links to Articles of Interest

Take the time to read the articles, not just the headlines! 

Banker questions ability of employers to build and sustain a company culture working from home

 Positive trends in the U.S. as office workers start coming into the office again

 Only in New York! Retail investor hires artist to create inspiring murals – could this happen in Toronto?

 WeWork in London emphasizing pro-active positivity to persuade people to return to the office

 ‘In the move to remote work, we are losing our sense of connection to the workplace’…Not everyone will agree with the author’s emphasis but worth a read

Occupancy Index - October 1

Comments –

The return to the office momentum continues but companies are treading very carefully on mandating a return. Some institutional organizations are permitting organized meetings in office which may be a sign that the gradual return will hold through the Fall.

Earlier in the pandemic there have been spikes in cases after major holidays. After Thanksgiving many observers are waiting to see how cases and especially hospitalizations are impacted as a mini-litmus test of progress to date. This will be reflected in the November Index.

… stay safe - the SRRA Team

Links to Articles of Interest

Take the time to read the articles, not just the headlines! 

 An ‘advertorial’ highlighting the views of Colliers in the Report on Business (Globe and Mail, October 5) claims ‘We just don’t see people returning to the office.’  The article itself (which isn’t available digitally) is actually quite balanced, noting the challenges associated with hybrid arrangements.

Office sector outlook picking up steam in large centres like Toronto

Canadian companies delay return to office amid Delta variant concerns

Delayed return to the office proposed by Quebec

Vancouver optimism for return to the office also affected by Delta variant surge

Rents rebound as office workers and students return 

Boom town conditions in Chicago in all sectors, including small unit rentals, even though a sports team threatening to leave

London decision makers concerned about impact of booming logistics sector that would pre-empt options for housing development

A timely overview of the risk to the TTC of sustained COVID related ridership reduction. 

Occupancy Index - September 15

Comments –

The slow but steady return to the office has been driven by employees who are choosing to come in voluntarily. Expect the Index to continue to rise and accelerate as and when employers firm up policies regarding who can come into the office and when and how much WFH is permitted.

Some large institutional office employers are allowing more staff to resume in office work but under strictly monitored and documented procedures. Insights from human resources professionals suggest that managing employee-driven WFH arrangements is a complex matter. We will no doubt see the emergence of more effective strategies to allow for a percentage of the workforce to WFH, post-COVID as the impact of the 4th wave is better understood.

… stay safe - the SRRA Team

Links to Articles of Interest

An alternative ‘activity index’ on office occupancy suggests Toronto is lagging its competitors

Commuters returning to transit in London

Looking for certainty on the future of office work? Still too many diverse viewpoints to build consensus (this is a longer read but well worth the time)

Occupancy Index - September 1

Comments –

We are seeing more and more companies allowing for some voluntary return in September. Traffic volume downtown is close to 75% of pre-COVID levels and parking garages are reporting the highest levels since the pandemic began and auto travel is reaching its limits. The TTC just celebrated its 100th anniversary and as a present from employers and mandatory vaccine policies, most returning commuters will be able to travel safely in the TTC.

January 1st 2022 seems to be the date many companies are planning to reach their post-pandemic normal. Many report that so much depends on the hospital capacity and severity of the fourth wave. We expect 10% to be achievable in September provided the largest employers open up to more voluntary return.

… stay safe - the SRRA Team

Links to Articles of Interest

New York-based companies seem to be most definitive on vaccine requirements

and this on vaccine mandates

Meanwhile in London…

BizNow audio series on Future of Office worth a listen

and cities need office workers

5G and other tech innovations will help shape a ‘new look’ office environment

Hybrid work risks becoming the next ‘career killer’ for women

Just when you thought you were beginning to understand the direction of trends for a return to the office….

Occupancy Index - August 15

Comments –

Activity in the core of the City has certainly picked up over the summer and so has the Occupancy Index, a measure of how many office employees are returning to the office on a weekly basis and most are returning on a voluntary basis. Interviews conducted with employers indicate that plans to return are still subject to the impact of changing COVID conditions.

Last September, the temporary return to school led to spike in office attendance which we expect to happen again this September. The question remains, will this start to see a substantial return or not. .

… stay safe - the SRRA Team

Links to Articles of Interest

You must be vaccinated to gain entry to our offices – an increasingly common message that begs the question “how could it be otherwise?”

TTC and Metrolinx relatively well-off compared to the MTA in New York – said to be comparable to financial four alarm fire according to MTA officials

Mixed messages on the return to the office – beware “trends” where the explainer has a vested interest in the outcomes

Housing affordability returns to the top of the agenda in the U.S. – recalling the experience of places like Boston a decade or so ago that lost employers as a result of steep housing costs…is it time to re-link the issues of transit, office location and housing affordability in the GTA?

Not the kind of move that Toronto’s financial core would want to see

Occupancy Index - August 1

Comments –

Though many facets of pre-COVID life are re-emerging consistent occupancy in office buildings has not occurred yet. Employers are working out details of return policies while more and more employees are voluntarily coming back. Activity has increased in the downtown core and the Index is increasing.

Look for plus 10% and more in the very near future.

… stay safe - the SRRA Team

Links to Articles of Interest

New York’s mayor walking a fine line on masks to maintain progress on COVID while avoiding conflicts

But New York’s governor is taking a harder line….

Good news for London commuters, TfL and employers – research indicates that commuters have little to fear

Worth keeping track of this series on the ‘future of work’

and this one ‘It’s Just A Room: Productivity And The Return To The Office’

Delta variant causing tech companies to re-think their opening plans 

Are those pushing for a hybrid future for office work simply not wanting to be wrong?

Occupancy Index - July 15

Comments –

Governments are encouraging double vaccinated workers to return to the office where possible. More and more midsized and smaller companies are now seeing 20% and more of their employees at least a few days a week. This trend is not as visible in larger institutional employers many of whom have reported no change to date.

As a result, we are forecasting a steady increase over the summer to as much as 15% by mid Sept, provided no major change is reported in the number of COVID cases in the region.

… stay safe - the SRRA Team

Links to Articles of Interest

Toronto’s business leaders start to express their frustration with passive approach by others, echoing their counterparts in London and New York.

What Will Remote Work Flexibility Look Like After Covid-19 Has Come And Gone? A New Survey Has Answers

Return to work patterns in New York show a ‘slow burn’ with huge impacts on transit agencies as commuters still able to drive due to unusually open roads – reports on worker opinions continue to demonstrate ambivalence regarding coming back to the office

Boris Johnston to give green light for those who want to return to the office but holds off ‘encouragement’ – pointing to a divergence of opinion within government

Occupancy Index - July 1

Comments –

The City of Toronto has officially recognized, last week, the importance of a return of downtown office workers. The joint campaign with the Board of Trade includes insights by among others SRRA’s research and represents an important change in ‘official’ attitudes with respect to a return to the office. Its time to start implementing the plans employers have been working on.

Major employers in cities around the world, NYC 24.5%. London 20% for example, are bringing employees back to the office in financial core office clusters. In Toronto, where double vaccinations are leading the country, the office worker in downtown Toronto is still staying home. The increase by July 1st to 6% occupancy is being led by individuals rediscovering the office and as of yet few employers are insisting on a return while regulators maintain restrictions. Look for this to start changing in July with significant change in August.

… stay safe - the SRRA Team

Links to Articles of Interest

Finally – Toronto starts to mobilize a back to the office movement

City and Board of Trade offer up ‘playbook’ to help firms get workers back at the desks

Survey pokes holes in aspirations to continue working from home

Momentum shifting quickly to a return to the office in New York

More insights into preparing for hybrid work environments

An important point about the value of investing in transportation to help the economy grow

NY Times piece underscores how U.S. and Canadian cities are not necessarily comparable.

The pandemic has worn many office workers down, leaving them vulnerable and uncertain

Companies in London starting to second guess decisions to put space on the market

Occupancy Index - June 15

Comments –

The increased occupancy in the last 6 weeks is due mostly to individuals returning on a partial basis. This is occurring in small to mid-sized companies but not so much in large institutional employers. The partial return may mean just few days a week or part of a day. Employers in these situations are responding to voluntary requests for the most part and we told these individuals are mostly double vaccinated.

We expect a steady increase in occupancy throughout the summer.

… stay safe - the SRRA Team

Links to Articles of Interest

Montreal government and business leaders take pro-active approach to encouraging return to the office when it is safe to do so

Report identifies drawbacks to WFH that threaten competitiveness of financial sector (culture, cybersecurity, uneven wi-fi speeds)

Newsvendors the new ‘canary in the coal mine’? Finance sector back in Manhattan offices as newspapers sell out before 9.30 a.m.

London stalls on re-opening due to variants but tech firms press on

This article is worth reading and then re-reading as there is a lot of nuance to contemplate

Bloomberg offers a less rosy view of the return to office in London

Optimism regarding return to a five-day work week

Generational differences defining views on returning to the office

One major U.S. firm INSISTING workers return to the office

Fickle behavior will define the office leasing market some predict

Messages for East Harbour?

New study credits ZOOM and similar technologies for role in keeping the economy moving through WFH

Survey comes down in favour of hybrid working (but remember that authors have a vested interest in communicating survey results)

Controversial leaked UK government document suggests one foot will still be on the brake after restrictions are eased in July – implicit support for hybrid working

Occupancy Index - June 1

Comments –

While the Province begins to reduce restrictions on some activities, the office sector in the downtown continues to remain quiet. We began to hear, in late May, more indication that voluntary return to the office is on the increase as vaccinations become more common place. Tenants were reporting more individual requests to come into the office some days during week.  We will likely see an increase in the Index by the end of June and possibly significant change in July.

At SRRA’s 14thForum June 10th on the state of The GTA’s competitiveness relative to other major cities there was general agreement that while the region lags behind in the recovery and the return to office jobs indicators point to positive growth possibly as strong as pre-COVID days

… stay safe - the SRRA Team

Links to Articles of Interest

New York offices looking at 15% occupancy for now, but uncertainty over true appeal of ‘hybrid’ model adds to uncertainty.

New study may have hidden messages for the GTA. If we are hoping to pursue a transit-powered recovery, what would be the impact of households moving to the region’s outer suburbs to purchase more living space?

Undertaking renovations to space before workers come back spurring uptick in building permits.

 Big U.S. firms focus on end of September return to the office.

Occupancy Index - May 15

Comments –

The Province has just announced the framework for a gradual re-opening of the economy over the summer months. It is reasonable to expect that the first tranche of significant change will occur in the middle of June. Of note, and perhaps concern, is the reality that the announced plans are again largely silent on the question of office-based work focused as they are on the retail and activity-based sectors.

While other City Regions across the world accelerate their progress to a post-COVID normal the Greater Toronto City Region and its office-based economy in particular may be slow off the mark.

… stay safe - the SRRA Team

Links to Articles of Interest

Confusion about mask protocols reigns in the U.S. – at least Canada isn’t alone when it comes to wacky messaging on COVID

A chance to learn a cool new word, and to glance askance at statistical logic piled upon shaky assumptions. “Heteroskedasticity is a very complicated word for the very simple concept that sometimes things are hard to explain because they change in unpredictable ways that don’t seem related to the other variables you are looking at. It is now about to start messing with your future office take-up predictions.”

A head to head comparison between the U.S./Canada vs European bank CEOs with divergent attitudes about the return to the office.  This review says it’s all about risk.

For this UK-based company, ‘flexibility’ is a watchword. Will we feel the same way about that word a year from now? 

Skeptical views on the hybrid office: are we playing semantics when we parse the difference between flexibility for location vs flexibility for work hours?

Patience and understanding for your employees: is the post-COVID CEO going to be more receptive to the needs of employees?

New York City, long buoyed by the flow of commuters into its towering office buildings, faces a cataclysmic challenge, even when the pandemic ends.

Remember how it felt to be downtown? New York gives you a hint

Occupancy Index - May 1

Comments –

It is clear from the data that even the sporadic voluntary return by individuals has lessened and those that do come in are coming in for pressing issues and not staying. The office sector in Downtown Toronto is listening to governments and experts. Although the Index is at its lowest point the numbers are different from the early stages of the pandemic. Most of the return is not regular 9 to 5 - 5 day a week in office attendance and therefore, more difficult to calculate, a sign of the future perhaps.

SRRA is conducting research on the mid term impact of COVID on growth and competitiveness on the region and will start posting point form results of that work in the months ahead. What is clear is landlords and employers are well positioned to accept employees back when government guidelines and pandemic experts are supportive, what isn’t clear is how the public will accept transit to return to office jobs in the downtown… stay safe - the SRRA team

Links to Articles of Interest

Lessons in future competitiveness for the GTA from London?

Is the UK opening Pandora’s Box with move to examine “right to work at home”?

Hybrid work arrangements, better integrated with all digital communication channels the way of the future?

 Advocates for benefits of an exciting office environment put digital nomadism into perspective

 All-in opposition to all-remote working

Toronto Life focuses on the positive aspects of working downtown – must read for true believers hoping to remind people how life used to be

 This is a hopeful take on the future of downtowns

Occupancy Index - April 15

Comments –

It is clear from reporting that office-based employment sectors are heeding the new Provincial “stay at home” guidelines. During the first half of April, fewer “occasional” employees were requesting access to the office. Pent up demand to get back to the office, though apparent, has not translated into increased occupancy despite the low rate of reported transmission of COVID in the downtown office environment.

Very few companies are actively planning for a return. Early results from our survey of tenants asking, “how much lead time are you planning before bringing employees back” indicates that little is likely to change through May. However, some will permit more voluntary return on a staged basis likely not to exceed 20% capacity once Provincial guidelines permit.

The Summary of the SRRA Forum on the Future of Office Space is up on the website. Stay Safe…

 Links to Articles of Interest

Study suggests firms need to pay attention to needs of younger workers, who value the office environment to further their careers, achieve job satisfaction

 A brilliant variation on zoom-based working

 U.S. firm to focus on monitoring office occupancy in close to real time

 How people playing in the big leagues are thinking. Full court press from New York on getting back to the office

 J.P. Morgan bearish take on future office space needs

 Brookfield’s office portfolio gets ‘seal of good health approval’

 Co-working specialists identify trends in flexible use of space (registration required for full text)

 UK government partners with co-working giant to establish work hubs in aid of hybrid return to the office

 Divergent opinions on return to the office captured in dilemma over sanitizing work space

 More angst and cracks across generational lines revealed in controversial survey

Occupancy Index - April 1

Comments –

SRRA has broadened the scope of our interview process to include a better appreciation of the time it will take employers to plan and implement a return to the office, and more data on what the post vaccine era will mean for ‘work from home’. We expect to be able to comment on these new data points as we emerge from this pandemic.

Return to transit is also part of the initiative we are launching this Spring, with a focus on how important transit acceptability is to a return to the office in the Downtown Financial District.

The Summary of the SRRA Forum on the Future of Office space is now up on the website.

Stay Safe…

Links to Articles of Interest

No fixed opinions on the future of the office from U.S. experts

PwC UK to support ‘hybrid’ return to the office

Extremes in culture shape views on office activity from Tokyo to Copenhagen

UK civil service strikes deal with IWG to establish remote hubs for hybrid working

Occupancy Index - March 15

Comments –

No data reporting indicates any change from the previous 15 days. Some holiday taking and mandated restrictions are factors. There is a continued uncertainty about planning for a mix of work from home and in office work. Over 60% of the interviews report a change in the proportion of Work from Home/Work in the Office ratio toward the office. Some signs that April may show more return for short periods. 

The Summary of the SRRA Forum on the Future of Office space is now up on the website.

Stay Safe…

Links to Articles of Interest

U.S. companies offer mixed signals on office leasing, expectations for return to the office

New York to roll out rapid testing with major employers as returning to the office deemed a priority

 Are “innovative” moves by key employers to “do away” with offices a realistic template for all sectors?

Preserving workplace culture could be the intangible factor determining the future of office space

Survey results underscore continued uncertainty about plans to return to the office

Mayor Ends Remote Work for 80,000 in Signal to Rest of New York City