Executive Summary
The following summaries will provide a benchmark against which Toronto’s progress can be measured. We can state on a preliminary basis that Toronto shares the following characteristics with other jurisdictions:
Even though TTC and Metrolinx have taken comprehensive measures with respect to cleaning, wayfinding and providing for physical distancing, transit ridership has increased marginally but is still much lower than ‘normal.’
Restaurants and retail stores in downtown cores continue to experience significant losses.
Landlords in buildings of all sizes have implemented major reallocation of space within offices and adjusted building access and egress in accordance with recommended norms, however, occupancy levels in office buildings also remain low.
We have identified four high level insights:
None of the cities reviewed for this report have demonstrated a facility for communicating to stakeholders that government, businesses and transit operators are working collaboratively or that they are successfully breaking down silos within their respective organizations to facilitate a safe return to the office.
London has the clearest messaging from transit operators, which stresses communicating with the travelling public as well as employers. Economic development entities like London First have also issued strongly worded reports urging the government to acknowledge the severe impact on the economy resulting from a slow return to the office. New York has issued the strongest, most targeted guidance on health and safety requirements from government. Frankfurt has the most effective ‘systemic’ approach that balances ‘relaxed conditions’ (combining voluntary compliance on physical distancing etc) with ‘rapid response' from public health to contain spikes in infections (‘prevent, detect, contain, treat’).
In all of the cities reviewed for this report, extraordinary steps by landlords and employers to control building access, reorganize physical layouts in office buildings, is still largely being done on an individual basis and excellent work carried out by landlords/property managers is not being communicated widely. As it is the large companies that are able to carry out this work, this potentially holds back the learning curve for many smaller and medium-sized companies.
What appears to be scientific caliber research (ARUP) on the link between physical distancing and infection rates suggests that 2.0m may be unnecessarily restrictive. ARUP recommends 1.5m, which would have a dramatic impact on transit vehicle and building capacity.
London
London’s return to work has been characterized by the government’s strict requirements imposed on employers (e.g. mandatory written risk assessments and adherence to ‘COVID-19 Secure’ guidelines) combined with a reluctance to explicitly encourage employers to bring their workers back. Businesses spent the summer urging the government to take positive action, stating that the government’s lack of support is “holding back the recovery,” felt worse in city centres. Major companies as well as economic development and research entities (London First, Heart of London Business Alliance, Centre for Cities) have been vocal in their demands.
The single most focused communication has come from Transport for London, which has urged “direct engagement” between businesses and TfL to take advantage of major upgrades in cleansing and the organization of distancing measures, as well as an offer to make TfL data available to small and medium sized businesses to help them with their planning. TfL issued a “Travel Guidance for Businesses and Employees” in early August.
Use of transit in Central London and Canary Wharf has been much lower than in outlying (suburban) areas (15-20% overall). TfL is facing extraordinary deficits but has ramped up or even exceeded normal service levels to support physical distancing.
The government has placed a priority of the return to school in September and TfL is advising companies to delay the work day to make room for students. On a constructive note, London has made significant investments in many aspects of the public realm (cycling routes, widening of sidewalks by claiming space from roads etc).
Paris
Even after the official re-opening of Paris in mid-June, the government encouraged workers to work from home wherever possible. The Mayor of Paris was a vocal supporter of returning to work to re-start the economy, which put her at odds with the government. In contrast to some other jurisdictions, organizations responsible for economic development took the lead in encouraging a return to the office while individual companies emphasized working from home. The head of MEDEF, the French employers’ association, called on the government to “tell the French people that it is time to return to work.” This prompted a positive response from the president in favour of re-opening.
Employers were put on notice that they would face penalties if they failed to follow health and safety rules. The government mandated that within office buildings, every worker must have a minimum of 4 square metres of space. A survey carried out by BNP Paribas Real Estate identified the property manager as the person best able to achieve a successful return to the office. Levels of service on public transit are still below normal. RATP is emphasizing close monitoring of travel patterns to spot choke points during busy periods, facilitating the closure of certain stations and other steps to redirect commuter routes. With the pandemic coinciding with municipal elections, the Mayor launched an aggressive program of public realm enhancements titled ‘The 15-minute city.’
Frankfurt
Among the cities examined for this review, Frankfurt is uniquely able to rely on active transportation, owing in large part to the city’s compact physical form. Development of office space is also highly regulated, which focuses buildings in areas accessible by transit.
The lockdown in Germany (and therefore Frankfurt) was technically less onerous than other European countries, but has proven more responsive to infection spikes to limit the spread of the virus (prevent, protect, contain, treat). A departure in the standards followed is reliance on 1.2m as the norm for physical distancing, which affects capacities on transit and in office environments. The government has provided – and communicated – highly prescriptive guidelines for the ‘safe’ return to work.
Employers have continued to encourage remote working, but terms such as "focused vigilance" reflect a commitment by companies to overcome logistical challenges for the return to work. Despite steps taken by transit operators, some employers continue to advise employees to avoid public transit. Although not unique to Frankfurt, some companies (like Accenture) have turned the challenge of returning to work as a business opportunity (Plan, Engage, Re-Open, Re-Invent).
New York
Owing to the nature of office employment in New York, there is a stark contrast between the percentage of companies that need to have their workers present (e.g. traders and others heavily reliant on access to high speed, secure communications) and a larger group of companies with the luxury of being able to delay or go-slow on the return to work. Some focus on function, others on internal organization factors (e.g. teams). Still others set percentage caps as targets for the return to work, often linked to key national holidays such as Labor Day (which in turn is linked to the return to school). The vintage of the office inventory is also a factor, with companies occupying newer, large floor plates having the capacity to rearrange workspaces to meet distancing guidelines.
A major concern in New York has been the ability of the MTA to maintain service levels due to the severe impact on revenue following lockdown. Bids to introduce congestion charging to restrict auto volumes have become mired in political disputes. The single loudest voice in addressing the need to instill confidence in the ability of workers to return to transit and to the office has been from the State of New York, which, in addition to publishing detailed advisories on health and safety requirements for employers and employees, has actively encouraged employers to consider ‘staggering’ activities in the office such as meetings and breaks. As in London, these guidelines also address logistical issues related to goods movement and deliveries.
Other notable initiatives
The Mayor of Montreal established an advisory committee on economic recovery and the return to work in downtown as early as March.
As noted in a comprehensive report from the OECD (see main text), Tokyo has created a one-stop real-time open data base to help municipal governments, employers and employees navigate the challenges of returning to work.
Vancouver has created a dash board to provide the public with information compliance education to travel conditions and many more actions taken by the municipality to combat COVID-19.
The Canadian Chamber of Commerce has published a guide (Business prep guide) for its members on how to return safely to work.
The consulting firm Arthur D. Little and the UITP have published research on the “Future of mobility post-COVID.”
McKinsey & Co. published “What European Cities can learn from one another.” (See main text for details.) One stand-out initiative is when transit operators run buses in parallel to heavily used rail routes in order to expand the capacity for physical distancing. (Locally, this would translate into the TTC running buses parallel to Line 1 as is done when the subway is closed for track work on weekends but doing this during business hours to augment the subway. This would obviously have financial implications.)
ARUP has published “Modelling a changed world: providing expert insight for COVID-19 recovery decisions” https://www.arup.com/perspectives/modelling-a-changed-world-providing-insight-for-covid-19-recovery-decisions which provides important insights into factors affecting the safe use of public and private spaces. ARUP also published “How will our cities move?: an exploration of urban people movement and transport in an evolving environment.” A key finding is that safe travel on public transit vehicles can be accomplished with a separation of 1.5m rather than 2.0m.
IBM’s Institute for Business Value recently published “Rethinking the Workplace,” a detailed guild for CHROs (company human resource officers) for how to use data effectively in the challenge of managing a return to the office through successive waves of the virus.
https://www.ibm.com/downloads/cas/NBANP6A
Criteria for selection of best practice cities
SRRA was retained by the six downtown BIAs (Downtown Yonge BIA, Toronto Financial District BIA, St. Lawrence Market Neighbourhood BIA, Waterfront BIA, Bloor-Yorkville BIA, Entertainment District BIA) and the City of Toronto to benchmark and track progress made towards the return to work in office employment in downtown Toronto. The project comprises three deliverables, the goal of which is to provide public and private decision makers, landlords, tenants and their employees, and transit operators data-driven insights to assist with critical decisions to be made over the coming months.
This is the first of three deliverables. The report sets out criteria for the selection of cities, the scope of information and data to be gathered as well as a summary of current insights. The report also identifies specific metrics and/or updates that will be monitored and communicated to the six downtown BIAs, the City of Toronto and other stakeholders as new information becomes available. The report concludes with a list of notable initiatives from a variety of other jurisdictions and organizations.
The second deliverable will provide a high-level examination of the risks stemming from COVID-related change that confront the downtown with respect to employment and related economic, social and reputational impacts. This will have a special emphasis on reporting on the impact of return to in-person downtown employment and the larger downtown economy and the resulting increase in foot traffic. The third deliverable will be an Occupancy Index, which will report data provided by landlords and tenants on a regular basis, showing changes in the rate and quantum of in-person employment. Special attention will be paid to factors affecting occupancy levels in small and medium-sized buildings.
As with all best practice reviews, the goal is to identify effective approaches to communications and problem-solving as well as steps to mitigate the impacts of COVID from other jurisdictions that can be adapted locally. These summaries will provide a benchmark against which Toronto’s progress can be measured.
Our starting point was to develop criteria for choosing which cities to analyze:
· Unlike other concentrations of office employment in the GTHA, Toronto’s downtown (defined by the boundaries of the City of Toronto’s TO Core planning work) is uniquely dependent on public transit. Selected cities should therefore have a similarly high level of dependency on public transit (subway and commuter rail, high transit modal share pre-COVID etc.).
· Downtown Toronto is designated as an Urban Growth Centre and was recently the subject of extensive analysis by the City through its TO Core initiative. Although there are a number of important office, retail and institutional clusters throughout the downtown such as the Health Sciences District and the Entertainment District it is the Financial District that is of particular importance because it has the largest concentration of office jobs and, more importantly, its economic impact extends throughout the downtown, the region and beyond. Selected cities should therefore be recognized as financial centres as this form of economic activity is most comparable to that found in the core of Toronto.
Although transit is the dominant mode of travel, several downtown neighbourhoods have a significant residential population which allows a high percentage of residents to walk or cycle to work. Similarly, while the downtown Toronto skyline is defined by iconic office towers, there are also numerous smaller office buildings – including renovated ‘brick and beam’ buildings. The review will also seek to identify cities that reflect this diversity.
· A third, related criterion is the ability to report on factors affecting the decisions of governments regarding the ‘re-opening’ of the economy. These will include:
o A description of the make-up of a city’s downtown economy and workforce as well as an indication of the level of dependence on transit pre-COVID and the impact of how the presence of residential populations shapes attitudes regarding the return to work.
o Identification of the date of lock down and the date of government-authorized ‘re-opening’ and, where applicable, dates for phased re-opening.
o COVID infection rates at the time of both these milestones, with updates wherever possible.
o To the extent possible, identification of the percentage of the office workforce by sector or by company that has returned to the office in downtown at any given time.
o If available, the best practice summaries will provide commentary on chosen options for ‘stretching the work day’ by employers, landlords and government agencies (e.g. internal priorities, time of day, days of the week).
o Commentary where available on government requirements for mask wearing, physical distancing affecting internal space planning, as well steps taken by the private sector to establish occupancy goals, cleaning regimes, building entry restrictions, access to elevators.
o Examples of communications from government, business and transit operators to employees/commuters, and/or collaboration between or among these sectors.
Best Practice Summaries: By City
Summaries of best practice analysis are organized by city, using common headings to facilitate comparisons. The cities selected are London, Paris, Frankfurt and New York. Work on Chicago was halted as a result of rioting that further disrupted plans to return to work. Sydney was discarded because it is not sufficiently dependent on public transit. Singapore was discarded because of on-going controversies over the government’s treatment of foreign workers, who comprise a significant percentage of financial services and other professional employees.
Government decisions on when to ‘open up’ their economies reflect a number of variables, ranging from the rate of daily infections to number of infections per capita and more. We have used data provided by OurWorldInData.org to illustrate ‘the number of daily reported cases’ for each of the four countries for the period March through to September. The date of ‘re-opening’ applicable in each city is noted in the text as the scope of re-opening (by city, by state, nationally) varies by jurisdiction.
London, United Kingdom
Context
According to the Global Financial Centres Index, London is the world’s second ranked financial centre. Even after BREXIT, London remains a powerful financial force. London’s total inventory of commercial grade office space is around 300M sq ft, and the city has one of Europe’s largest concentrations of office employment. Financial, professional and business services are located primarily in ‘The City’ – London’s traditional financial centre – and Canary Wharf, a relatively new hub of approximately 23M sq ft of office space to the east of The City, developed over the past three decades. Unlike the square mile of ‘The City,’ Canary Wharf also has a large residential population as well as a significant inventory of retail space. London is also a major tourist destination all year round.
Public transit is overseen by TfL (Transport for London), under the auspices of the Mayor of Greater London. About 49% of travel is by public transit.[1] The ‘Tube’ is one of the iconic faces of London’s public transit system (handling three million passengers daily, 400k of whom are commuters), but the bus network, with more than 700 routes, carries more passengers. A combination of double decker and single deck ‘bendy’ buses accommodated some six million passengers daily before the pandemic.
In addition to the Tube, TfL is responsible for Overground trains, trams, the Dockland Light Railway and water-based transport. TfL also coordinates ‘franchised’ operations such as The Heathrow and Gatwick Express routes. Central London is also served by a number of major rail terminals that accommodate commuter rail (accounting for more than 800k commuters daily), inter-city and international trains. When the long-awaited Crossrail (Elizabeth line) opens in 2023, it is expected to carry more than 200M passengers annually, providing much needed relief to the underground.
Trajectory of COVID
London entered lockdown on March 24 when Prime Minister Johnson issued a ‘stay at home’ order. Restrictions were eased for different categories of business in stages, with the ‘green light’ given to non-essential office work on July 4.[2] The directive emphasized the voluntary nature of returning to work, and workers were still encouraged to work from home wherever possible.
UNITED KINGDOM: WHAT IS THE DAILY NUMBER OF CONFIRMED CASES?
Source: OurWorldinData.org
The UK government’s delayed response to COVID has been criticized as having contributed to a high death rate. As can be seen from the graph above, progress towards a ‘flattening’ of the curve has been erratic. Perhaps as a result of this, government directives addressing requirements for successful re-opening are prescriptive in nature. Although the scale and depth of challenges facing London are very different from other urban centres in Britain, the advisories apply across the board. The standards set out in the advisories for re-opening are mandatory. But, as described later in this summary, the green light is being interpreted more as a ‘yellow light’ – to proceed with caution.
This quote from a recently updated government advisory captures the ambivalent nature of the directive:
“Every company returning to work has a legal duty to carry out a written risk assessment if it has more than five employees, and employers must consult elected staff representatives. Businesses and workplaces should make every reasonable effort to ensure their employees can work safely. From 1st August, this may be working from home, or within the workplace if COVID-19 Secure guidelines are followed closely.
When in the workplace, everyone should make every reasonable effort to comply with the social distancing guidelines set out by the government (2m, or 1m with risk mitigation where 2m is not viable is acceptable).”
Reaction from employers to re-opening
The directive permitting a return to work is being treated cautiously by major employers, but some business leaders have indicated their desire for the government to promote the return of workers as soon as this can be accomplished without compromising public health.
A Financial Times article published in early August captured this. “Businesses are urging the UK government to clarify its guidance on when office workers can return, given growing fears that the absence of white-collar employees, particularly in city centres, is holding back the recovery. Government guidelines that people who can work from home should continue to do so have not changed during the easing of the coronavirus lockdown over recent weeks.”
The article quoted Carolyn Fairbairn, director-general of the CBI business group, who said that businesses now wanted greater clarity over when workers could come back to offices. “There is some concern around our office-based members about when offices might be encouraged to go back to work,” she said. “Although we know that offices can work from home, we are increasingly hearing from firms who are saying that they have people who want to go back.”
Dame Carolyn said the hospitality sector needed office workers to return. “Office workers going to pubs, into cafés are crucial to the economy.”
Kevin Ellis, Chairman of PwC UK and Senior Partner, interviewed for British TV, agreed, noting that getting people back to work in their offices is “good for employers and employees but also good for surrounding businesses, and the key to protecting the viability of thousands of jobs in local stores and restaurants.”
According to its annual report, PwC has more than 20,000 employees in the UK and related offices. The company would like to have 50% of these workers back in the office by September. As well, PwC brings on nearly 1,000 university graduates and ‘school leavers’ as trainees every fall.
“Some things cannot be learned over Facetime (ZOOM, etc). Our offices need to be hubs of learning, observation and innovation, as well as fostering comradery,” said Ellis. “If we are not back in our offices, local shops will have no one to serve.”
The Financial Times article also pointed to reports from The Centre for Cities think-tank. Data released by the Centre in early August showed that “the recovery in footfall since non-essential shops reopened had been weakest in big cities where offices were concentrated, including London, Manchester and Liverpool. This underlined concerns for the future of local services if higher-paid office workers remained absent.”
The economic development organization, London First, makes a strong case for business leaders and transit officials to work collaboratively with each other and with government.
“Direct engagement with businesses as they prepare to re-open is essential,” the CEO of London First noted. “For smaller companies, advice on how to apply TfL data to office planning is critical. There must also be a clear strategy for ensuring that the return to school, as well as to offices, does not overwhelm the bus network: this needs to be confirmed well in advance so that operators, schools, and the wider public can prepare.”
The messaging from London First is clear. “Much has been done to make public transport as safe as possible: this now needs to be communicated – by government at all levels, by operators, and by employers – to the public to rebuild trust in transport.”
Ros Morgan, chief executive of the Heart of London Business Alliance, which represents more than 500 businesses and 100 property owners, was also quoted in the Financial Times. She noted that the government’s message is confusing because although there are no explicit restrictions on office workers returning to the office, a return to work is not being encouraged either.
(https://heartoflondonbid.london/westendtravelguidance/)
Performance of public transit post-re-opening
The graphic below is extracted from a presentation prepared by TfL. Following lockdown, public transit experienced a dramatic reduction in travel. Travel on the Tube was more affected than on the London bus network (97% drop in travel vs 89% decline). As of late August, ridership is recovering slowly on both modes, although the Tube is experiencing higher week over week gains than buses (6 % vs 3%). Road traffic did not drop as precipitously as transit but following the decision to re-open non-essential businesses, is now only 10% below normal levels. The congestion charge was increased in July, in part to discourage car traffic (in part to discourage motorists and make more room for cyclists and sidewalk expansion). With the Mayor’s support, additional resources have been allocated to active transportation (cycling, walking and scooter use). Investments have also been made in enhancements to the public realm such as temporary sidewalk expansions and gathering spaces capable of handling meetings at a distance.
Most importantly, however, despite the cost to the public purse, TfL service levels are now close to or in some instances at higher levels than before the pandemic. At present, the authorities are focusing on how to accommodate the return to schools. In London, students traditionally use public transport (mostly buses) rather than relying on dedicated fleets of school buses. Starting in September, 200 additional buses will be put into service, and approximately half of all bus travel will be dedicated to transporting students. To compensate for the impact on capacity, businesses (including offices) are directed to delay their working day until after the rush period. (Peak travel times in London are from 5.45 a.m. to 8.15 a.m.)
Notwithstanding all these measures, occupancy on London’s transit system is currently running between 15-20%.
The impact of government directives on occupancy levels on public transit is severe. A double decker bus, which normally has a capacity of 80, may now only carry 30 passengers. No standing is allowed.
London already has a number of sophisticated travel planning apps, and efforts are being made to expand the capacity of these apps to allow commuters to gauge levels of crowding at key pinch points such as high demand Tube stations. The newly appointed Commissioner of Transport, Andy Byford, who is well known in Toronto following his time with the TTC, has decreed that for the first two weeks following the return to school, TfL staff will be asked to personally monitor travel conditions (behaviour at bus stops, Tube stations etc) to greatly expand the level of insight and knowledge within the system. TfL is encouraging employers to have their staff delay their commute until (and after) the rush period at least until students are settled into a routine.
London First has been a vocal supporter of TfL efforts to communicate with stakeholders, including employers. A document released by London First addressed the benefits of building on strong data platforms:
“TfL should enable further use of data to help commuters plan their journeys, and provide clarity about the criteria for assessing the success of temporary interventions. TfL has been a pioneer in making its data available to third parties, now is the time to leverage that experience as we unlock.
Predictive data that allows employers to plan for office reopening, as well as helping Londoners to plan their journeys to avoid busy stations or routes, should be combined with real-time advice so that adjustments can be made in the moment. It should be as accessible as possible and promoted widely, including via third parties such as popular journey planning apps. TfL should also set out clear criteria for assessing schemes like Streetspaces and the changes to the Congestion Charge.”
Figure 1
Lead role in communications/advisories
The British government has taken a ‘risk assessment’ approach to re-opening. To support this, all employers (with more than five workers) “have a legal duty” to complete a risk assessment form provided by the government. Employers also have to elect a staff committee to monitor progress. Government directives can be viewed at:
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/working-safely-during-coronavirus-covid-19/offices-and-contact-centres
https://www.hse.gov.uk/coronavirus/working-safely/index.htm
There has been some dispute about the required ‘physical distancing’: although the government documents specify two metres, the Prime Minister has suggested ‘one metre plus,’ a metric evaluated by engineering firm ARUP. This is controversial in terms of health impacts but would also create very different conditions in offices. According to reports in the Guardian, the Canary Wharf ‘estate’ has estimated that it could arrange for its office buildings (which typically have large, recently built floor plates) to accommodate 100% occupancy. Sticking to the 2-metre distance reduces the capacity by half, to 50%. Observers suggest that employers are more likely to choose the more conservative approach in order to avoid investing in standards that could change overnight.
Officials from TfL confirm that the organization is proceeding with the 2-metre distancing approach, which would reduce their capacity to accommodate 10k workers to approximately 4k, a 60% reduction in employee capacity. A strict interpretation of government directives also presents a ‘space and place challenge.’ This means that it will no longer be possible to walk around the office engaging in informal dialogue with colleagues. Meetings will only be permitted in rooms capable of accommodating 2-metre distancing, which in the case of TfL, which operates out of older premises, means that most meetings will have to be done through ZOOM, Webex or telephone. In the view of some observers, requirements like these diminish the value of returning to the office.
Andy Byford’s return to TfL has also generated a number of high-profile communications with employers and the public. In a document published in early August entitled, “Travel Guidance for Businesses and Employees,’ TfL makes the following points:
Transport Commissioner Andy Byford summarized the TfL approach with a direct appeal to businesses:
Byford writes under the auspices of the Mayor.
TfL committed to playing its part in ‘getting London moving and working again, safely and sustainably.’
Advice is focused on helping businesses and their employees ‘return to the workplace.’
Intensification of hospital-grade cleaning, mandatory mask-wearing, ‘close to normal’ service levels.
Notes positive uptick in commuter travel.
TfL team committed to supporting ‘return of a vibrant Capital, so that shops, attractions, theatres, pubs and restaurants can recover and thrive once again.’
TfL is attempting to provide clear messaging on relevant issues for employers
Urges businesses to help employees choose when to travel and has introduced app (TfL Go) that allows commuters to identify busy stations etc, less busy travel times. (“Help us to help you”)
All strategies have been ‘risk assessed.’
Testimonials from users of public transit.
Comprehensive attention to signage, and station operations (e.g. one-way paths on heavily used routes, revised queuing etc, touch-free door opening).
Examples of engagement with landlords/employers through short case studies (e.g. Canary Wharf has provided all tenants with ‘return to work’ guidance).
TfL has opted for a comprehensive focus on improved mobility rather than simply fare generation
Partnerships to facilitate bike-sharing, more bike lanes, bike parking and car-free zones to encourage more ‘active transportation.’
Stresses the ‘big picture’ by also encouraging businesses to pay attention to deliveries and servicing (‘re-time’ and consolidate deliveries, encourage click and collect to reduce service vehicles on the road).
The economic development public-private partnership, London First, has also organized marketing campaigns (e.g. ‘Because I’m a Londoner’) that stress the importance of continuing to promote the capital as an economic, socially-relevant hub.
Another example of steps taken by London First is publication of “Getting our capital back to growth: Collective actions needed by London’s businesses and policy makers.” The goal of the paper, published in June, which was widely distributed and covered extensively in the media, is to “help restore confidence in the capital, locally in London, across the UK and globally.” The broad scope of the paper identifies numerous hooks for stakeholders to latch on to and generally reflects the broad-based membership that comprises the organization.
The dilemma facing organizations like TfL is captured in a paper published by UITP, which states:
“Operators do not feel empowered to run full-throated public information campaigns about these measures for fear of being seen to be promoting travel on public transport, contrary to Government guidance.”
Conclusions
There is a reluctance within the private sector to invest in physical changes to the workplace while circumstances are subject to change overnight. There is also a disconnect between the official government stance on return to work (‘work from home if you can but otherwise follow these steps’), exhortations from the private sector and economic development organizations to consider the negative impact on city centres of workers staying away and very public efforts by TfL to instill confidence in the travelling public.
Paris, France
Context
Paris (often referred to by its administrative title, Île-de-France) has the largest inventory of office space and concentration of office jobs in France, with 53M m2 of office space in Paris (570M sq ft). According to Britannica, although the French financial sector employs less than 13% of the labour force, it generates almost one-third of the country’s GDP. Paris is HQ for many of Europe’s largest banks (BNP Paribas, Société Générale), and is also the location of France’s largest stock exchange. There is also a significant insurance sector, dominated by companies like Axa, CNP, and AGF as well companies managing the major pension funds.
The most well-known office sub-district in Île-de-France is La Défense, whose inventory grew by 40% in a five-year period leading up to 2018. A newer sub-district, Péri Défense, grew by more than 250% in the same timeframe. Due to come on line in 2020 (delayed by COVID), is The Bridge, a massive new HQ for Orange.com (57,000 m² - 613,000 sq ft). Orange is a multi-faceted telecommunications company with strong ties to financial services. Located in Issy-les-Moulineaux on the Left Bank, well south of La Défense, the building will be accessible by Metro, Bus, Train, Light Rail or RER.
All of the principal office sub-districts are well served by Paris’ extensive public transit network, run by the RATP Group. The network comprises the Métro (underground), light rail (referred to locally as trams), RER suburban express trains (which interconnect with the Métro inside Paris), buses and Noctilien (night bus). The Métro carries the largest number of passengers with more than 1.5B riders annually. The RER carries an additional 500 million. The modal share for all travel by public transit is a massive 59%, although this includes non-commuter travel, tourism-related travel etc. Even though Parisians rely on transit to a greater degree than most cities, the average commuting time is lengthy.
Trajectory of COVID
The decision to lockdown Paris (and the rest of France) was taken on March 17. While restrictions were lifted in most of France on May 11, the higher than desired rate of new infections in Paris resulted in re-opening being delayed until June 17. Even then, this was seen as a cautious step, with government advisories still recommending working from home wherever possible.
FRANCE: WHAT IS THE DAILY NUMBER OF CONFIRMED CASES?
Source: OurWorldinData.org
Tensions between Paris and the national government were evident as early in May, with the Mayor of Paris encouraging the half million residents who had left the city for the safety of their country homes in March to return to the capital. ‘With what amounts to a quarter of the city’s population absent, the Mayor urged those who could to return in order to ‘restart the economy.’
As can be seen from the graph below, there were spikes in infection rates during the summer, and as at the time of writing (September 1) daily infections rates in places like Paris had reached levels not seen since May. The authorities have so far resisted returning to lockdown, preferring to increase the level of enforcement regarding mask wearing and other steps.
Employer response
While returning to the office remained voluntary, companies were also put on notice that they are subject to fines and lawsuits if health and safety rules are not followed. Every worker must be allowed 4 sq metres of personal space. These rules dramatically reduce the capacity of meeting rooms (e.g. 33 from 50). Companies were also encouraged to take steps to stagger arrivals and departures, in part because French elevators tend to be smaller than the norm.
A lawyers’ blog, posted in late May, focused on the absence of lawyers in central Paris. Larger law firms like Paul Hastings and BCLP issued statements suggesting that although remote working was not affecting the quality or amount of legal work, law firms were content to leave the decision to return to the office to individual preferences. A partner with BCLP noted that “Some people are cracking up a little. They’re getting tired of being at home. Some will come back to the office, but it’s entirely up to them.” Law firms such as Fieldfisher and KPMG Avocats kept their offices open ‘for emergencies’ during lockdown but found little demand for their services.
A partner with Paul Hastings commented that “95% of what most lawyers do can be done remotely. The work doesn’t suffer, nor does the quality of client service.” This may change when the courts re-open, other lawyers noted.
As might be expected from a telecommunications company, Orange.com has been working overtime to support a massive increase in the demand for web, audio and video conferencing.
According to a Facebook post back in March, “Teams are managing an additional 130 customer operations per day to increase the speed of their internet connections or at their data centres. In total, nearly 3,500 Orange Business Services employees are mobilised to manage customers’ business critical activities and will continue to do so.”
The same post said that Orange has established a “dedicated crisis unit … at the Executive Committee level, overseen by Orange Chairman and CEO Stéphane Richard. It coordinates all the different measures and actions carried out within the Group on a daily basis to respond to the evolving pandemic. The use of VPN servers is facilitating remote working on a massive scale for Group employees. In fact, more than 100,000 employees are teleworking including Stéphane Richard, who spoke about his experience via a mobile app connecting Group employees.”
BNP Paribas Real Estate surveyed its extensive network of landlords and tenants about the challenges of returning to the office. The property manager was identified as one of the key players in ensuring a successful transition back to work on site.
Performance of public transit post re-opening
During lockdown, only about one third of the system was operational, resulting in an average daily total of about 500,000 riders a day or 4% of normal levels. As offices and other businesses returned to work, albeit at a much reduced rate, RTAP reported that many stations remain closed, and that service levels were only slowly returning to pre-lockdown levels.
The pandemic lock down extended through municipal elections, and the Mayor took advantage of the focus on public policy to officially commit to Paris becoming a ’15 minutes city.’ As a short-term measure, the city also created 50km of bike lanes, 30 new pedestrian-only precincts (typically around schools and other places where large numbers of people are likely to gather).
The 15 minutes plan focused on remodeling the city core to make more space for pedestrians and cyclists, while barring older, more polluting cars from entering the city. The blueprint for future development “would see yet more of the city’s surface area taken away from car lanes and repurposed as community spaces.”
Another approach to dispersing riders involves limiting service. Paris has suspended access to certain stations or reopened lines at different rates. The city has also limited stops at rush-hour choke points, including major intersections. This compels riders to walk more or take alternative routes. Crowd controls and station closures can also prevent people from gathering too closely. The key to limiting service effectively, observers suggest constantly monitoring demand and watching for choke points so operators can quickly counteract crowding.
Lead role in communications/advisories
According to the Globalist web forum, Geoffroy Roux de Bézieux, the head of MEDEF, the French employers’ association, has even asked for the government to intervene. It “must tell the French people that it is time to return to work,” he explained in “Les Echos.”
Shortly after, President Emmanuel Macron proclaimed the reopening of the country “which will notably allow a stronger resumption of work.”
The French President insisted: “We will therefore be able to rediscover the pleasure of being together, to resume work fully.”
In another post, the Globalist noted that working on high floors in prestige office towers was once a sign of success. “You may now have to wait 20 minutes to access an elevator which usually has a carrying capacity of 50 people, but which now only accepts four people.”
On September 1st, a day when many thousands of students and office workers returned to their schools and offices, prime minister Jean Castex imposed a mandatory mask requirement even in public spaces in Paris and other ‘hot spots’ in France like Lyon.
This requirement follows up on a decision in late June to scrap the recommendation that people work from home (although the government suggested that employers look favourably upon requests to workers practice télétravail, if this is possible). The space requirement was also reduced from 4m sq per employee to 1m sq, mirroring the changes already introduced in schools. Each company must appoint a 'COVID delegate' to be responsible for hygiene regulations. In large workplaces, one-way system should be set up to avoid employees crossing paths.
Conclusions
The return to work in Paris (Ile de France) has been hampered by conflicting messages from public and private sectors. The region has an advanced backbone of digital infrastructure, and office employment is heavily oriented to functions that can be carried out remotely. Although the city is heavily dependent on public transit, employers and RATP do not appear to be in synch in terms of implementing strategies to support a successful return to work in the office sector.
Frankfurt, Germany
Context
The population of Frankfurt-Main is approximately 2.3M, although the city itself has fewer than 700k inhabitants. Frankfurt has by no means the largest inventory of office space in Germany. With 11.7M sq m (125M sq ft) of space, Frankfurt ranks behind Berlin, Munich and Hamburg. Overall there are nearly 8M office workers in Germany.
Frankfurt is selected for this analysis on the basis of its role as the country’s principal financial services centre. Recent pre-COVID expansion of the banking district in the heart of Frankfurt’s downtown is attributed to the impact of BREXIT, with Deutsche Bundesbank among the financial services companies committing to significant blocks of new office space. The City is also home to the world’s third largest stock market and the headquarters for the European Central Bank. Frankfurt has also developed into a major telecommunications hub for the Federal Republic.
Frankfurt has a robust public transit system, with nine underground routes (U-bahn), eight tram lines, as well as buses and commuter rail (S-bahn). Before COVID, 23% of travel was on public transit. Notwithstanding the climate (Winter temperatures in Frankfurt range between 3 and 10C) Frankfurt has very high percentages of walking (30%) and cycling (13%). One of the reasons for this is that central Frankfurt has a compact, high density core. The built environment is highly regulated and expansion of office space in the most desirable areas of downtown remain at a premium, which also contributes to a perennial scarcity of supply.
Trajectory of COVID
With more than 40% of travel dedicated to active transportation, Frankfurt appears to be relatively less dependent on the return of public transit than most financial centres. Following lockdown on March 24, infection rates declined sharply and the government allowed ‘voluntary’ return to the office on June 8. Technically, Germany’s ‘lockdown’ was less restrictive than in many places, but the impact of business closures was no less severe. One of the reasons suggested for the early relaxation of restrictions is that Germany led Europe in its rate of testing, and was able to implement an effective four-point protocol for responding to the virus:
‘prevent’ through measures such as requiring the use of masks and physical distancing (1.5M instead of 2.0M elsewhere);
‘detect’ through extensive testing;
‘contain’ through steps to limit the spread of the virus;
and ‘treat’ using the full capacity of healthcare resources.
When a community adjacent to Frankfurt experienced a spike in infection rate in August (in excess of 50/100k population), new restrictions were put in place immediately to contain the threat.
GERMANY: WHAT IS THE DAILY NUMBER OF CONFIRMED CASES?
Source: OurWorldinData.org
Reaction from employers to re-opening
The return to the office is being treated cautiously in Germany. Deutsche Bank, one of Frankfurt’s highest profile employers, sent a memo to all employees in June that suggests working from home will remain an acceptable option. Reflecting the reality of changeable travel restrictions within the EU, the memo cautions against non-essential travel. Even private travel was a concern, the bank said, noting that sudden changes in quarantine requirements could leave vacationing employees stuck on the wrong side of a border. Critics of the memo added that the bank’s emphasis on continuing to work from home was motivated by a desire to reduce costs as the company explored ways to reduce its office space commitments after the pandemic.
BNN Bloomberg adds that “Deutsche Bank AG is allowing a trickle of employees to return, with about 600 currently working from its downtown Frankfurt tower. Seating in the canteen has been removed and access is limited. The coffee machines have buttons — so they’ve been switched off.”
Merk, another large presence in Frankfurt, announced that it “continues to ensure that our products and services reach our customers. Merck (EMD Performance Materials) is monitoring each country, state and local regulations and are complying with their individual guidelines.” The company uses the term "focused vigilance," which outlines a step-by-step return to the physical locations, with priority on the company’s R&D and production facilities. Timing will differ from country to country, as the virus has hit different nations at different stages.
Several law firms with a large presence in Frankfurt started the process of re-opening their offices on a voluntary basis in June. Freshfields, Hengeler Mueller began to repopulate their offices in Frankfurt.
The approach taken by Accenture’s Frankfurt office has taken the challenge of returning to work and turns it into a business opportunity, from promoting strategies for building confidence in the workforce, to recommendations on how to handle the logistical challenges of coming back to the office. The details can be found at https://www.accenture.com/ca-en/services/salesforce/return-workplace. The partnership between Accenture and Salesforce is built around four points:
Plan;
Engage;
Re-Open;
Re-Invent.
The partnership has developed ‘The Work.com suite,’ including the Emergency Response Management solution built as a collaboration between Accenture and Salesforce. This allows public health organizations, government agencies and the private sector to manage readiness, prepare workforces, deliver care to those affected and allocate resources and services quickly.
Performance of public transit post re-opening
As Frankfurt’s office sector begins to slowly return to the office, there are indications that more commuters are choosing to drive rather than risk taking transit. A number of companies are urging their employees to avoid public transit, even though transit operators have publicized their increased efforts to regularly cleanse vehicles, and the use of signage and temporary barriers to permit physical distancing.
Lead role in communications/advisories
The German Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs (BMAS) recently published a so-called SARS-CoV-2 Occupational Health and Safety Standard. The document (available here) contains notes and guidelines for more safety and health at work.
Where it is necessary for employees to be personally present in the company, personal contact should be reduced as much as possible.
Employees should work in small fixed teams or in shifts if possible, in order to avoid alternating contact between employees. (This will prove essential for effective contact tracing.)
Employers should adapt the use of traffic routes (e.g. stairs, doors, elevators) so that sufficient distance can be maintained.
Where there are crowds of people (time recording, canteen, lifts, etc.), protective distances of standing areas should be marked, for example with adhesive tape.
Conclusions
The German approach to recovery is focused on monitoring and an ability to respond quickly to stamp out spikes observed in specific geographies. The application of a 1.2m limitation on physical distancing also affects the capacity of transit vehicles and the office environment.
New York, U.S.A.
Context
New York City has the largest concentration of office jobs in America, with 1.5M office jobs, one third of which are focused in financial and business services. The inventory of office space in the City has grown significantly since the 2008 downturn, and as of 2017, New York has 550M sq ft of office space. Nearly 90% of this space is concentrated in Midtown, Midtown South and Downtown.
In normal times, before the pandemic, the Metropolitan Transit Authority (MTA) carried more than 5.5M riders every business day. About 40% arrive by subway, focused on a number of high capacity stations, the busiest of which is Times Square. An additional 11% rely on buses, and seven percent arrive by commuter rail. Despite a high modal share of all forms of public transit, and recent increases in cycling and walking, traffic congestion (single occupancy cars, taxis and rideshare vehicles and goods delivery remained a significant problem prior to the pandemic. There does not appear to be much leeway for accommodating additional commuting by car post-lockdown.
As New Yorkers gradually return to their offices (current estimates suggest that only 10 to 15 % of employees have returned to work as of mid-August), much will depend on re-establishing public confidence in taking transit and in determining how to stretch the working day to make the most of available ‘safe’ capacity on public transit.
Trajectory of COVID
As is well known, New York was at one point the epicentre of the pandemic in the U.S. Governor Cuomo declared a ‘state of emergency’ as early as March 7, while New York Mayor de Blasio was urging people to continue taking public transit. After these initial missteps, New York was locked down on March 22. The state instituted the ‘New York State on Pause Program,’ while the Mayor issued a ‘stay at home’ order around the same time. The infection rate was 1668 per 100k population. After considerable multi-pronged efforts, the green light for offices to re-open took place on June 22. By early August, the infection rate had fallen to 4 infections per 100k population. Note that in the figure below, the Y axis shows an exponentially larger range of daily confirmed cases than other countries.
UNITED STATES: WHAT IS THE DAILY NUMBER OF CONFIRMED CASES?
Source: OurWorldInData.org
Reaction from employers to re-opening
Some of the ‘big banks’ held an on-line forum prior to the ‘green light’ to highlight their attention to the details of logistics planning, specifically the challenge of moving large numbers of workers to their offices via limited space available in elevators. Citigroup, which operates in 50 countries around the world, indicated that each location would be handled differently on a ‘custom’ basis. “You are not going to wake up one morning or one evening and see an email saying ‘Come back to work tomorrow,’” CEO Michael Corbat told his employees according to a report on Bloomberg News in April.
As of July 27 (according to the Wall Street Journal), only ‘one tenth of office workers in Manhattan’ had returned to work. A number of employers announced that they were not intending to call workers back until 2021 (e.g. Google and Facebook). Twitter is contemplating a September return with a 20% occupancy cap. Microsoft suggested an October date depending on the ‘state of play.’
Some companies, such as JP Morgan and Citigroup, organized the return to work by function, allowing ‘traders and bankers’ to return. Part of the rationale was that these types of employee need access to high speed, highly secure networks, which cannot be accomplished through working at home.
Other firms such as Verizon organized the return by ‘teams’ in order to encourage members of the same team or cluster to be in the office at the same time. But even these companies set caps on overall occupancy. JPMorgan Chase brought up to 20% of its workforce back in some of its buildings but set a limit of 50% occupancy. Verizon capped occupancy at 25%. According to real estate specialists, these decisions reflect in part the size of floorplate and layout of the office space occupied by individual firms.
One large landlord with 16 buildings (REBNY) estimated that 10% of workers had returned in late July, but noted this was an increase from 2% in late June.
Some firms, including many of the large law firms, took the cautious step of linking a return to work to a specific dates or events (e.g. after Labor Day or after school openings. Commentaries on the feasibility of returning employees to work also addressed issues such as the opportunity for collaboration.
Performance of public transit post-re-opening
The MTA reports that ridership is currently (August 27) around 20% of normal capacity (5.5M), which translates into just over a million passengers daily. An increase to 2M riders a day is anticipated but the shortfall is still significant. More concerning, the MTA is preparing to implement massive service cuts unless federal aid is forthcoming. According to the New York Times, “budget deficits in 2021 will amount to $3.9 billion lost from fares and tolls and $1.9 billion for subsidies.” The Times reports that the MTA’s plan to introduce congestion charges to bring in $1B annually is stalled following a negative response from the White House.
Lead role in communications/advisories
The strongest leadership in terms of promoting a coordinated return to the office has been from the State of New York. The guidelines for re-opening of offices (Phase 2) cover physical distancing, cleaning practices, issuance of protect equipment, screening and contact tracing procedures, comprehensive communications (landlords-tenants-employees-visitors).
https://www.governor.ny.gov/sites/governor.ny.gov/files/atoms/files/OfficesSummaryGuidelines.pdf
The guidance below focuses specifically on requirements for employers and employees – the concept of ‘staggering’ meetings, schedules etc on site is addressed. The information is also provided in multiple languages.
https://www.governor.ny.gov/sites/governor.ny.gov/files/atoms/files/RealEstateSummaryGuidance.pdf
The MTA has issued a guidance for its own employees that covers the typical range of physical distancing, cleansing and related protocols. The guidance also addresses phased returns that cover proposed seating plans as well as plans for dividing workers into teams that will be assigned times and alternative days to enter the offices.
https://new.mta.info/covid-19/employees/return-to-work
Conclusions
As the premier office environment in the U.S., New York has a massive concentration of companies operating nationally and internationally. The presence of these companies, which have the capacity to ‘go slow’ in terms of returning to work, no doubt influences the actions of smaller companies. The ability of the MTA to function at anything like normal conditions is hampered by fiscal problems resulting from lost revenues.
3.0 High-level Commentaries/Strategies
Government/Institutions
The UK government has announced an ad campaign to encourage companies to bring their workers back to the office. According to the BBC, “Employers will be asked to reassure staff it is safe to return by highlighting measures taken to prevent the spread of Covid-19. Business leaders have warned of damage being done to city centres as people stay away from offices. Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said some things were "impossible" to do remotely.” Ministers in Scotland and Wales will meanwhile continue to advocate working from home. Union leaders and others are advising against ‘scare campaigns’ that imply workers could lose their jobs if they don’t return to work.
The Mayor of Montreal, Valerie Plante, who established an advisory committee to address economic recovery after lockdown in March, issued a statement in early September urging employers to bring their workers back to the city centre. She stated that with so many preventative measures taken by the Société de transport de Montréal (STM), employers can be confident in riding transit.
The OECD has published a comprehensive review of innovative steps taken by cities and other orders of government in response to the pandemic. Two examples are cited below:
Tokyo, Japan created a one-stop database on the real-time COVID-19 situation including the number of infected people, their status, characteristics (age, gender), number of inquiries to the call centre, number of people using subways, etc. The city also provided the website’s source code as open-data, so that other municipalities and institutions can use the data and replicate similar webpages.
Vancouver has launched an online dashboard to inform people of the city’s emergency response to the spread of COVID-19. It provides a snapshot view of all city services and gives information on a range of topics, including: compliance education (how the city is making sure everyone complies by the rules and guidelines); travel (how vehicle, bicycle and pedestrian traffic has evolved); childcare for essential workers; support to homeless people; food security programs; and community contributions.
More can be found at:
http://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/cities-policy-responses-fd1053ff/
Employers/landlords
Amazon and other tech companies have announced that working from home will be a priority until at least October 2. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce has published a guide for its members to advise on how to safely return to work (Business Prep Guide 2020).
Transit operations
As part of an on-going initiative to examine rapidly changing trends affecting mobility, the consulting firm Arthur D. Little collaborated with UITP, to undertake a “Future of mobility post-COVID” study. “From May to July 2020, we engaged with over 70 leaders and top executives from over 30 organizations across the world, covering transport authorities, mass transit operators, “new mobility” solutions providers and professional bodies, to exchange views on the impact of the crisis, actual and planned responses, and insights on the longer-term future.”
https://www.uitp.org/sites/default/files/cck-focus-papers-files/ADL_UITP_FoM_Report.pdf
McKinsey & Co. recently published “Restoring Public Transit Amid COVID-19: What European Cities Can Learn From One Another.” Although a link to the publication is provided we have included extensive quotes and some graphics to highlight the value contributed from this publication.
The graphic below lends itself to reproduction to reflect local conditions. It is also worth noting that Germany uses 1.2m not 2.0m to establish safe distances between people, which would also impact the capacity of transit vehicles.
Figure 2
To create better use of limited transit capacity, “Some transit operators and city governments have implemented several changes, largely aimed at allowing workers and students to alter their commuting schedules. One change is staggering start times for schools, public services, and offices so that fewer people need to board public transit during rush hour periods. Some parts of Israel, for example, are opening schools in shifts, which reduces transportation congestion and crowds around schools. Similarly, some schools and universities in the Netherlands have spread start times over the day. Meanwhile, in France, only trips to and from work and school are allowed during peak periods. In addition, some transit operators have created extra waiting capacity at busy hubs.”
The use of apps is also highlighted to “help riders make choices that alleviate crowding. While some public rail operators have traditionally offered reservations on long-distance trains, they have begun to do so for light-rail systems as well. The Danish rail operator DSB has added advance-booking capabilities, which have helped keep trains from getting full. Taiwan has gone further, instituting a strict reservations policy on suburban and intercity rail to limit occupancy and put safe physical distance between passengers. Other operators guide travelers toward spare capacity. DSB has introduced an app showing which services and carriages have the most space for physical distance. Use of the app helped increase transit ridership by 6 percent during the first week of lockdown easing.
The graphic below illustrates estimates the increase in capacity anticipated through the extensive use of protective equipment such as masks. Note that the graphic illustrates a physical distance of 1.5m.
Figure 3
Another strategy found to expand capacity is to run buses parallel to heavily used rail routes during peak times. “Because trains, metros, and trams travel on fixed lines and run at maximum occupancy during peak periods, increasing capacity on critical lines” benefits from “opening parallel bus routes. This technique, which was already being used in certain countries to increase peak capacity, could help transit systems carry more workers and students.”
[1] “Return to public transport: international comparisons,” UTIP.
[2] https://www.gov.uk/guidance/working-safely-during-coronavirus-covid-19/offices-and-contact-centres
https://www.hse.gov.uk/coronavirus/working-safely/index.htm