The purpose of this briefing is to help public policy makers and major employers, particularly those operating in the Financial District, understand that maintaining close to pre-COVID transit service levels is critically important in the drive to return to a new normal.

Discussions are now underway to facilitate the re-opening of the economy, but re-opening Toronto’s Financial District, which is central to the health of both Ontario’s and Canada’s economy, poses unique problems for decision makers because of its heavy reliance on public transit.

The lock down affected more than 400,000 commuters working in offices as well as an extensive economic ecosystem of coffee shops, restaurants, bars, and cultural amenities. Before COVID-19, 65% of commuters entering downtown came by transit, 20% by car (including car-poolers), and 15% cycled or walked. These ratios are unlikely to change in the post-COVID reality.

Herein lies the problem: unless transit becomes manageable in the eyes of the commuter, 50% of all commuters will not be able to repopulate offices or the rest of the economic ecosystem. Retailers will be challenged to remain viable, and major government facilities and services could be forced to relocate. This is the logistical reality:

• Significantly more private auto-travel is not an option. because parking was already at a premium and there is insufficient road capacity to allow for a significant move from transit

• Increased dependency on services like taxis and Uber is limited by income and distance and the simple availability of road space.

• More active transport such as cycling and walking is limited by weather, distance, and safety concerns and not possible for many with physical limitations.

The TTC and GO have seen a decline in fare-paying customers of up to 90% while maintaining most services. The TTC is facing losses of $25M per week, projected to exceed $550M by September. This is not sustainable for the City and the TTC without help from the Province and the Federal government.

Employers are slowly moving toward a return to the office. Most are preparing for that to start with up to a 20% return at the end of the summer. As the Province, the City of Toronto and employers prepare to re-open the economy, government and business leaders alike face a unique challenge in the Financial District.

So long as physical distancing is a reality. Half the commuters simply will not be able to access their jobs in the Financial District. Encouraging employees back to their offices cannot be achieved unless people have confidence that offices are a safe place to work. The psychological readiness of workers to return to a work life marked by close physical proximity is and will remain the largest unknown variable influencing the nature and timing of the new post-COVID normal. The following ought to occur to help the financial core return to work.

First

The TTC and GO must, at a minimum, maintain service at pre-COVID levels to allow for physical distancing, which means that transit vehicles will be carrying fewer passengers. Vehicular carrying capacity throughout all transit will be reduced by 70%. Ways must be found to either increase capacity or spread the rush hour over an extended day, or both.

TTC and GO are already undertaking unprecedented levels of disinfection, cleaning of all facilities and other COVID-related procedures to keep staff and customers safe. This is being clearly communicated, but officials warn that neither transit agency has the resources to monitor or enforce physical distancing. Other measures include:

• Mandatory wearing of masks. The Province has issued a “strong recommendation” that masks by worn. This is supported by the unions but overcoming privacy and other concerns will be critically important.

• Monitoring seating capacity. Operators are adding floor “footprints” and other signage to help commuters practice physical distancing.

• Incentives. For many practical reasons, transit must offer a clearly superior economic choice for commuters.

The sharp decline in revenue, combined with new costs to provide a safe environment, must be supported in the short to mid-term by further government subsidies. The creativity seen in the immediate government response to COVID can and must be extended to facilitate the well-being of the Financial District.

Second

Landlords working with tenants will have to solve the logistics of arranging ingress and egress to high rise office buildings and elevators within those buildings. Implementing cleaning regimes at a new level and common area management are already underway by landlords and major employers, with critical input and support from organizations like the Financial District BIA.

Employee density in office buildings has been increasing steadily in recent decades, primarily to reduce the cost of office space per employee. For the short to medium-term, this trend will need to be reversed. A return to pre-COVID floor occupancy levels is not realistic until the need for physical distancing is eliminated.

Third

Employers are going to have to spread out the workday to allow commuters to travel off peak in big numbers. Staggering the workday is not new although employed for different reasons. In New York in the early 1990s, employers introduced shift work to reduce the cost of office space per employee. The same strategy could work here for different reasons. Although not universally popular, these arrangements had the unintended benefit of providing New Yorkers with more space on transit, a short-term benefit appreciated by thousands used to chronic overcrowding.

Four

Transit agencies will have to co-ordinate service levels between agencies and pricing strategies so that the commute can be spread out between GO and the TTC. (see Quick Relief Video)

Working at Home; “Not all it’s cracked up to be.”

Business in large urban clusters thrives because of the interaction between people. Being physically isolated at home, parked in front of computers unable to build relationships created in offices and enjoy important informal interactions or chance connections on the street with colleagues and clients, is not sustainable.

This is especially true for younger employees building up their careers. Networking and socializing are hard to do behind a computer screen in one’s basement. Toronto is one of the most attractive urban regions in North America, so maintaining the benefits of agglomeration and its amenities with some degree of physical distancing will require imagination but working at home has limited application.

As Catherine Nixey noted in a recent edition of The Economist, “Though many of us might have been loath to admit it until this spring, all those desks and all those people, all that bustle and time-wasting, have their benefits. Humans need offices. Online encounters may be keeping us alive as social beings right now, but work-related video meetings are too often transactional, awkward and unappealing.”

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